Search is dead. People click less. Growth is only supported by adding users and getting us to spend more time online. We reach peak users this decade and probably peak time next week. After that growth stops. ‘Nuff said.
Then what happens? Text ads die too. Finally we give up the current metaphor and find a new one that better fits how we use the web.
The future has always been social
The one thing everyone knows about the next metaphor is that it somehow involves the word “social” like the last one used “context”. The most obvious example of a social platform right now is Facebook. Yet, the most effective social (and contextual) ad platform in history has a CPM of .04%. That’s 400 clicks out of a million impressions. Scary stuff. Thankfully for them they’ve got entire internal economies based on games and virtual currencies. Facebook will do just fine. So what about the rest of us?
It’s obvious that the newspaper/magazine metaphor we arrived at in the 1990’s for monetizing the internet isn’t going to last any longer than actual newspapers and magazines. Those of us not named Facebook need a new metaphor.
A starting point for a metaphor can be a meme. The current meme is all about social proof. Startups like Blippy and Facebook concepts like Beacon are based upon the idea of using social proof as a way to get you to buy the things your friends are buying.
Both were very clumsy attempts (perceived as being either invasive and/or outright tacky) at cracking the social marketing problem. As obnoxious as it is to build a startup that tweets the conspicuous consumption of affluent Bay area folks to a world going through the worst recession in a generation, it was an attempt by very smart people to solve a problem we have no clear solution for: How do you make people buy things when they don’t want to click on ads anymore? Solution (or so they think): tell your friends what you’re buying and maybe they’ll follow suit.
Near as I can tell, Blippy, Beacon and similar platforms are a metaphoric crossbreed of a Tupperware party and the price tag on Minnie Pearl’s hat. It’s using people’s own consumption as advertising to their friends.
I think there’s potential in that metaphor if it doesn’t come across as being too invasive or tacky. Unfortunately, those are the two things the people trying hardest in that space excel at being.
A really good metaphor, one that we can use to contextualize all of this networked activity, should give us at least another decade of growth and innovation. This metaphor that gives us a new, yet familiar way to look at things and plug in content, business and social interaction is the what’s going to unleash the next big boom in online commerce. Like search and contextual advertising did for the last decade, this new metaphor is will be the launching point for the next trillion-dollar online economy. So what is it?
We’ve already met part of the metaphor…
The important parts of this metaphor are right in front of us. We just haven’t recognized it yet. Text ads, search and contextual advertising were around before Google figured out how to make them all work and we saw the Internet as a giant newspaper/magazine metaphor.
We know the next stage has got to be social and that’s why there’s all of that investing into apparently ridiculous schemes. This isn’t a game where it pays to sit on the sidelines when you’ve got billions of cash at your disposal to spend on experiments. Blippy, Beacon, even the nefarious Pay-Per-Post provided us with lots of information about people’s behavior. Granted, you could have probably learned a lot of this with some clever small scale experiments, but that’s not the way VCs work. It’s all anecdotal until you try it. These are folks willing to build their own space fleets on a whim. Spending ten million to annoy you with locations services or show you how crass your friends are is chump change for them. People say they’re aiming for the next Google. But actually they’re actually aiming to be even bigger than that.
Taking a wisdom of the crowds perspective, we can deduce:
1. Somehow it’s “social”.
2. It won’t be something that makes us click outside our area of interest.
3. We’re going to be even more annoyed by the failed attempts.
4. It’s going to make us rethink “privacy” (an already an alien concept to anyone under 20).
5. It’ll be explained to us as a metaphor we already understand in a different context.
6. Really smart people are spending lots of money on things they think are part of it. There’s a reason Google has been smothering pet projects in the crib; they want to focus their resources.
Those are just a few pieces of the puzzle. I personally suspect that the next metaphor isn’t necessarily going to be something as simple as saying the Internet is now like pay cable or radio. In fact, I think we’ve already exhausted all the traditional forms of looking at media as a metaphor for the internet. Sure it’d be nice to invent some new construct to look at it, but that never works with humans. We work with patterns we’re already familiar with.
I thing this next metaphor is going to based much more on how humans do trade and not how we consume information. And I just don’t necessarily mean how we did commerce in the 20th century, the Middle Ages or even during the time of the Phoenicians. I think we may need to start talking to anthropologists about much deeper metaphors that go back 100,000 years or maybe even further. But not too much further. It’s not a metaphor that applies to chimps or even our more closer related ancestors like Homo Erectus or Neanderthal. I bet elements of it are in Adam Smith’s The Theory of Moral Sentiments and Charles Darwin’s On the Origin of Species. Figure out which part and maybe you’ll be the one to figure out the trillion-dollar metaphor everyone is looking to find.
Andrew Mayne is founder of Blurbtastic.com and publisher of WeirdThings.com. His personal website can be found at AndrewMayne.com.
