Hidden Frequency

My Apple Predictions (updated)

1. Yes to the iPod Touch with FaceTime rumor. I’d expect a $299 price for the Touch with the cameras and the retina display. $199 iPod Touch gets faster processor, more memory and retina display. Maybe an iPod with 3G. That would be revolutionary too. You can own and Android and an iPhone.

This was the obvious one. I was surprised that Apple was able to release it at $229. The lack of the 5MP camera explains it.

2. Yes to the iPod Nano going touch screen. I think it’ll be easier to navigate than some people think.

Yep.

3. Apple TV gets apps (like games and Netflix). Think about an AppleTV that runs apps - many of them free games supported by iAds. Game changer. I think casual gaming is a much bigger market than X-Box and PS3 and Wii games.

Well, we got a Netflix app… In retrospect it makes more sense that we’ll see an app enabled AppleTV in a January event when Apple can tell developers how many of them are out there. I think…

4. I don’t see a $99 Apple TV if it has that cool magic trackpad. Maybe a $149 Apple TV that’s ram based and comes with a magic remote. Maybe a $99 Apple TV that you control with your iPod or iPhone.

No trackpad. I think we’ll see that with an AppleTV that does apps. It’ll need an input device like that. Maybe a remote that flips over to a trackpad on the other side.

Although the iPod app for the AppleTV does have this function…

5. The biggest news regardless of price will be Apple TV with apps. This is what the public will focus on. Forget the tech pundits. This is the device that makes it the last mile. The iMac is the desktop. The iPhone and iPod are in your pocket outside. The iPad is in your bedroom and around the house. Apple TV is your living. The only thing left is implants.

The app-focused Apple TV is Apple’s new approach to their “hobby” and the reason they don’t take Google TV seriously.

Technically, this is what people were talking about…the lack of apps. I underestimated how big of a deal this would be. I think Apple wants to just sell a streaming AppleTV for now and then move up to apps like they did the iPhone.

The really big deal is AirPlay. That’s the killer feature that didn’t get enough attention. Forgetting everything else, a $99 box that lets you show what’s on your iPhone or iPad on the big screen. This is huge.

This Christmas will be about 3 things: iPod, iPad and Apple TV.

Duh.

Andrew Mayne is founder of Blurbtastic.com and publisher of WeirdThings.com. His personal website can be found at AndrewMayne.com.

Apple’s iAd will probably not destroy life on this planet as we know it

Before the even the first iAd has been served, panic over Apple’s iAd platform has begun. Dave Johnson at BNet has decided that the mere suggestion of it is reason enough to switch phones right away (BNet). He fears that because it functions at the “platform level”, it’ll be too easy to put ads into every app in the App Store - even the paid ones.

He’s making a very strange assumption I can’t quite wrap my head around.

Right now, any app developer can put ads into their applications free or paid. The lack of an Apple ad revenue system isn’t holding them back. Market forces are what guides each developer’s decision. Want to put ads into a $3.99 image retouching application? Go for it. Think people won’t complain? Guess again. There are plenty of other applications in the App Store that would be happy to sell you an ad free version.

Johnson’s fear implies a misunderstanding about how markets work. Since the decision to put ads into each application is made by the developers and not Steve Jobs, there’s not a whole lot of coercison going on by Apple. Don’t want an application that uses ads on your iPhone? Don’t install it. Given the growth of the App Store, you’re likely going to find another app that’s more suited to what you want.

What the iAd solution will do is create a solid business model for developers to launch apps, get wide exposure and create two revenue streams: One for ad supported versions and one for ad-free paid upgrades. This means we’re going to see even more apps coming into the App Store, many from developers that want to focus on writing great apps you’ll want to buy and/or keep using. This is good for everyone.

The other focus of his argument is that the ads will take up too much space on the small screen. He says, “It’s like iPhone OS 4 is able to shrink the size of your iPhone’s screen without your permission.” This is such an odd statement. Again it implies that the decision to implement ads in an application is made by Apple and not the developer. Every internet browser and every OS ever created has had this same ability. The choice to crowd your screen has been always been up to the content creators and the consumer, as it should be.

Mr. Johnson says, “Apple has found a way to turn their mighty iPhone into a ghetto of banner ads and reduced usability.”

That’s a choice each content creator will have to make for themselves. In Mr. Johnson’s case he’s made that decision for his own BNet site by putting up his own pop-up ad in the middle of the page that arguably turns it into it’s own “ghetto” of “reduced usability”.

I’m not knocking his choice to do that. Content needs to get paid. I just wish that he would be a little more understanding that other forms of content also need to find ways to get paid. And at least Apple’s iAd solution is a little more tastefully done.

For more commentary check out Daring Fireball’s promise to “mark” Johnson’s words about the ubiquity of iAds in paid applications in the future: Daring Fireball

The Unofficial Apple Weblog, one of my favorite Apple news sites has some interesting comments (and a really not cool headline): TUAW

Is Apple’s iAd the biggest thing since Google Search?

The Apple iPhone OS 4.0 announcement was a big deal. So big that people are having a hard time wrapping their heads around it. The real story isn’t about Apple shutting out Adobe development tools. It’s not even blessed multi-tasking on the iPhone. It’s Apple’s vision for advertising in apps via iAd.

“So what?” Is the response from a lot of people. While we already had in app advertising before, we haven’t had the Steve Jobs version of it. He and his team at Apple are very thoughtful people. They have a vision. They just told it to us. It’s a very, very big vision.

Imagine I told you back in 2000 that I was going to monetize web pages by putting little text ads on them ad putting text ads next to search results for those pages. Very few people thought this was going to be big. Those that really believed it put their money behind Google and made a fortune

Here in 2010 we’re amidst another game changing event. This time Apple wants to be at the forefront of this revolution. Apple wants to do for applications what Google did for monetizing the web.

In Apple’s vision a developer doesn’t have to worry about advertising or monetizing their work. Create a great application. Put iAd into it and upload it into the app store. Apple takes care of making it discoverable and profitable from there.

To be sure, a closed system has its downside. However the upside makes it more than worthwhile for an independent developer like myself. I’d go bankrupt on Google AdWords trying to attract the volume of customers that the App Store store gives me for free (well, 30% of gross).

iAd takes that a step further. With a built in ad model I can start making $.99 applications into free ones and put them into the hands of more people. Lots of more people…

By doing to applications what Google did to web content, Apple’s vision could change the fundamental economics of computing.

As a content producer it’s helpful to think differently about how you might monetize what you produce in a world where people are getting more and more of their content from within apps.

Podcasting, blogging and just about every other form of content have a new opportunity to create a successful business model because of this. A free app based on an iAd supported ad platform in an ecosystem that encourages in app purchase and upgrades is an exciting thing. How would you leverage it?

Sidenote: Don’t think for a second that Google is going to sit still. Expect an announcement about their own platform soon. The question is how well do they understand the app ecosystem? The Android App store isn’t an encouraging sign, but they’re smart and they learn.